🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.