Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
